https://www.pauljverhagen.com/writing daily 0.75 2022-09-08 https://www.pauljverhagen.com/writing/taiwan-pax-americana monthly 0.5 2022-09-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662475956046-JTEJF9DP12MLHBPYFAZH/unsplash-image-IBHIm5wkBP0.jpg Writing - The Pax Americana stands or falls with the fate of Taiwan Whichever way you look at it, Taiwan is not a normal country. Even calling it a country is likely to draw reprimands from the People’s Republic of China, as it is technically a territory, or if you ask the Chinese, a province of China. Taiwan, also known as the Republic of China (ROC), is the remnant of the Chinese civil war of 1927-1949. After the communist victory, the leadership of the ROC flew to the island of Taiwan to form a government in exile. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662476064175-B793Q7CNPCACWJNN40H5/unsplash-image-fzOITuS1DIQ.jpg Writing - The Pax Americana stands or falls with the fate of Taiwan The second option is to not defend Taiwan, and merely offer financial and logistical support. In practice this means that the United States would openly admit that its hegemony is over. China has become a true rival and the costs of containing them is too high for the Americans to bear. This scenario also carries dramatic consequences although they will take considerably longer to unfold and are more subtle. The entire global economy will be disrupted, as various countries will need to re-industrialize at high speed to compete on semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662476113626-2HWWP7HLHQATCIZPGGAU/unsplash-image-nJI8WAqpn7Y.jpg Writing - The Pax Americana stands or falls with the fate of Taiwan Time and confidence are important variables in this conflict; if American strategist are convinced that a great power conflict is inevitable then it is in the US’ interest to start the conflict sooner rather than later. The gap between American and Chinese military capacities right now is as large as it will be and the United States has a strong network of allies to count on. https://www.pauljverhagen.com/writing/eu-renaissance monthly 0.5 2022-09-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1659804109985-IMPF4SDMEBOBDA3Y7IJA/unsplash-image-lCbvx4awBHI.jpg Writing - The crumbling pillars of EU foreign policy and the coming European Renaissance The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shaken the core of the European vision on foreign policy. Long cherished beliefs and assumptions have been drawn into question, and with it the very identity of Europe. The EU was founded to remove the possibility of warfare on the continent, now that it has returned what does this mean for Europe? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662476608214-6JE48JU88JSQQUMQ2VIK/unsplash-image-1W2QMVo0lb8.jpg Writing - The crumbling pillars of EU foreign policy and the coming European Renaissance The political left has had to come to terms with the role of violence in the world. Especially youth in Europe has a post modern vision on defense and violence. True idealism meant that violence has no place in the modern world, defense expenditure is a waste of money. Warfare and violence as a tool of foreign policy belongs in the 20th century, and has no place in the contemporary world. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662476717377-E1IALALOIMN8P4X8H3Q4/unsplash-image-MZWBMNP7Nro.jpg Writing - The crumbling pillars of EU foreign policy and the coming European Renaissance This development will have consequences for Europe that are not limited to just defense. A wholesale reevaluation of Europe’s role in the world, and a realization of the power Europe has if it acts as one will completely reshape European identity. In a geopolitical environment where climate change, artificial intelligence, the Sino-US strategic competition, and the next pandemic are all looming, Europe will be forced to make some difficult decision. Societal challenges demand interventions that do not conform to free market principles. https://www.pauljverhagen.com/writing/americandetox monthly 0.5 2022-09-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662474709685-RVOH9Q0MDX3N9FEFKRCF/unsplash-image-uThLDG9Y4ms.jpg Writing - Part III: American Detox In 1960 the United States represented about 40% of the world economy, today that is more like 24%. Starting 2015 the average life expectancy for American declined for several years in a row. The fact that this has happened in the richest and most technologically advanced country in human history is striking. The United States has seen stagnation or even decline across a range of development indicators, although she remains near the global top. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662459589346-TL56XZNWIQ7G489X4OSK/unsplash-image-DF1hKdVsn_c.jpg Writing - Part III: American Detox This brings us to what this all means for Europe. Since the end of the Second World War, Europe has been the most important region in the world. The arms race between the USSR and the US centered on the European continent, and both sides had committed millions of troops to defend the continent. Shockingly for the Europeans, Europe is no longer the most important region. The global economic center of gravity has shifted towards Asia, and with-it American troops and interests. The ramifications for Europe are obvious. The French recalled their ambassador to the US in a high-stakes argument with the US about Australian submarines. The American commitment to share nuclear submarine technology undermined a years-long negotiation with the French to build Australian submarines. In short, one of America’s oldest and most trusted allies was brutally showed to the side for the sake of strategic competition with China. More of these events that underline the relative decline of Europe in strategic interests will follow. https://www.pauljverhagen.com/writing/coercive-america monthly 0.5 2022-09-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662474832517-NURCA0SWY81ISM9A83N3/unsplash-image-Bv4ImkwctlY.jpg Writing - Part II: Non-American alternatives might be bad for your health During the Cold War everything was seen through the lens of the Red Scare, the threat of the political and military threat that the Soviet Union posed. The world was neatly divided into three groups. The First World, countries that had allied with the United States and preaches capitalism, the Second Word, countries that followed communism, and the Third World, countries that were neutral or non-aligned. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/cf6b9733-4b25-4797-8741-21278929b0ee/743px-Tr-bigstick-cartoon.jfif Writing - Part II: Non-American alternatives might be bad for your health Mere years after 1945 the United States started exerting pressure in European elections. In the 1948 Italian general election it seemed like the popular communist party would gain the majority. Against the backdrop of the Soviet-backed coup in Czechoslovakia in 1948 the United States saw a communist victory in the ballot box as the end of democracy in Western Europe. A communist victory after all meant totalitarianism, atheism, and starvation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/b91b3178-f227-4a9f-a7c7-0a3e8901a6c1/91D3-u%2B11TL._AC_UL600_SR600%2C600_.jpg Writing - Part II: Non-American alternatives might be bad for your health - Recently released documentation shows that the United States was not only aware of the mass murders, but offered financial, logistical, and political support to the perpetrators. Other Western countries such as Australian and the United Kingdom had active rolls in suppressing journalists from reporting on the ground and aided in spreading positive propaganda. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662475120935-OHUDV75RE7YGMF6TW1I9/unsplash-image-P8rgDtEFn7s.jpg Writing - Part II: Non-American alternatives might be bad for your health This meant that the US was able to simply impose economic policy, sometimes referred to as the Washington Consensus. Most often this represented a package of economic reforms in exchange for loans from the IMF and World Bank. Primarily oriented around free market principles, deregulation, and an emphasis on the private sectors, the Washington Consensus was in fact a blue print for neoliberalism and globalization. https://www.pauljverhagen.com/writing/americanization monthly 0.5 2022-09-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662475636082-LQPLPVQWDAPHIWDRVRFI/unsplash-image-9C8r4QUwZRQ.jpg Writing - Part I: Addicted to America - This distinction is far from simple semantics. The fundamental difference can be understood by studying three critical components of the US’ role in the world: America’s example, the undermining of non-American alternative, and finally, the contemporary crumbling of American hegemony. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662475544860-XOSU7ZE7RRGQCD9Q9A22/unsplash-image-nZ-gHiVtFWE.jpg Writing - Part I: Addicted to America From this starting point the Marshall Plan was developed, possibly the single most important event in European history. It was nothing less than the reconstruction of Europe, but with the implicit goal of rebuilding it in the image of America. Emphasis was put on the removing of trade barriers, industrialization, and creating a foreign market for US consumer goods. This era also brought forth the various global institutions such as Bretton Woods, NATO, the United Nations, the IMF, and the World Bank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662475654052-DCFLDWK8KWHKE9GSA1F3/unsplash-image-OcMKDx5y11A.jpg Writing - Part I: Addicted to America European modern life is essentially American. Europe adopted the American diet of McDonald's and Coco-Cola, while binge watching American shows on Netflix, and communicating about them through platforms owned by the American tech giants. Even though many schools in Europe still teach British English, most Europeans under the age of 40 are guilty of a distinct American twang in their vocabulary. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662475700696-22B514GCLCE7L76LKTWN/unsplash-image-b9wsEM40Cv0.jpg Writing - Part I: Addicted to America The #MeToo, the BLM-movement, and the European abortion debate found their initial impulses in the American context and subsequently started making waves within Europe. It is American opinion makers and news events that drive the intellectual discussion in Europe, often resulting in a warped debate that is half rooted in America and half rooted in Europe. Perhaps the starkest indication is that it is almost impossible to even have discussion around social movements without important a whole laundry list of American loanwords, including woke, pro-choice, and pro-life. On a more fundamental level Europe lacks the intellectual vocabulary to have these debates independent of their American context. https://www.pauljverhagen.com/writing/the-era-of-big-business-is-over monthly 0.5 2022-09-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/89541cd6-0be7-483a-ab61-c40cdfd03457/open-graph.jpg Writing - The Era of Big Business is over - Basking in the afterglow of the end of the Cold War, US President Bill Clinton made a bold proclamation during his 1996 State of the Union. “The Era of Big Government is over”. He was rewarded with thunderous applause from both parties. Yet a little over a quarter century later, the more accurate statement might be: The Era of Big Business is over. What he meant was that the large federal government that would actively intervene in pursuit of vanquishing Communism was no longer necessary. Geopolitics ceased being an obstacle, unpleasant regimes guilty of human rights violations presenting more of an unfortunate distraction than a systemic challenge. It was time to unleash the private sector. Bill Clinton in his 1996 State of Union Speech https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662458918110-KRO9JIMMNX3OX7T7U33T/unsplash-image-WqZwkrBuZIE.jpg Writing - The Era of Big Business is over While these trends predate the pandemic, COVID was a wake-up call with respect to the downsides of globalized economic supply chains. From the import of medical equipment to the Evergreen blocking the Suez Canal, the strategic risk of depending on global trade have become obvious, in particular after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In particular Europe has had a rude awakening on the limitations of markets and free trade. Housing prices have soared while the current energy crisis and abysmal relations with Russia has discredited the German approach of mutually assured dependence. Economic self interest and even economic nationalism is in vogue on both sides of the Atlantic. Both of these components, the innovation mercantilism and the realization that globalized supply chains are easy to manipulate point at the same conclusion. The virtually unlimited scope of multinationals is being absorbed into national interests. Proactive government intervention for the sake of the ‘public good’ is back whether informed by geopolitics or political opportunism. This means that the glory days of neo-liberalism are coming to an end. A new vision is starting to emerge with its foundations routed in economic security, geopolitics, and proactive regluation. A quarter century after Clinton’s proclamation we can now say that the Era of Big Business is Over. https://www.pauljverhagen.com/writing/american-greatness monthly 0.5 2022-09-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/e1c1b9cb-6a78-411d-ae20-0fbe4cd95601/unsplash-image-F7qUX4QAx4E.jpg Writing - What made America Great Despite an endless torrent of US media coverage on coups, mass shootings, and deeply rooted polarization, until quite recently there was something that made America great. America is the greatest country on earth. This is a conviction that many Americans grow up with. As cliché as it might sound, it contains a grain of truth, although it is not for the reasons typically named. Lets acknowledge that the United States is far from perfect. The original sin of slavery still echoes through society, and the country was built on a foundation of ethnic cleansing and systematic extermination of Native Americans. The United States was not first to give women the right to vote, and its contemporary political system is not exactly an advertisement for political stability. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662476237288-O02N8H3T2LYHRN4P07X2/unsplash-image-bTF3gkd2L28.jpg Writing - What made America Great Americans will stand and fight for their rights and principles. Sometimes peacefully, such as MLK or the gay rights movements. Sometimes literally, as during the Civil War, where long held principles collided with the reality of slavery. Americans can protest like no other, and some of the most successful and famous civil rights movement in history find their origin in the United States. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/62ed6e9edb786409ec5ed685/1662476277038-PNAKNEIPAC455DA649ZG/unsplash-image-7rehTDIfR8o.jpg Writing - What made America Great It is worth emphasizing the paradigm shift that this signifies for the United States. Where in the recent past it was possible to fight for your rights, and, with enough support, codify those rights in an expanding constitution, we are now at a place where we are fighting simply to maintain the rights already acquired. The judiciary is willing to impose its own minoritarian vision (in this case a Christian-nationalist vision) on the rest of the country. 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