Excerpt: In an extensive interview with NRC, Paul Verhagen argues that Europe must reconsider its geopolitical alliances and pursue a pragmatic partnership with China to strengthen its strategic autonomy.
In an interview with NRC, Paul Verhagen argues that the transatlantic alliance has fundamentally changed and that Europe must prepare for a future in which the United States can no longer be relied upon as its principal strategic partner. Rather than waiting for American politics to return to normal, he advocates a pragmatic rapprochement with China to accelerate Europe's path towards strategic autonomy.
Drawing on the arguments developed in The Techtonic Shift, Verhagen outlines concrete geopolitical trade-offs. He proposes that Europe could relax restrictions on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for access to critical raw materials, while redirecting scarce European industrial capacity towards defense production. Such an arrangement could help Europe address its immediate security and economic vulnerabilities while reducing its dependence on the United States.
The conversation also explores the difficult strategic questions surrounding Taiwan, ASML and the global semiconductor industry, as well as the different approaches to artificial intelligence pursued by the United States and China. Verhagen argues that Europe cannot simultaneously achieve all its strategic ambitions without making difficult choices about industrial priorities, geopolitical partnerships and the limits of its own resources.
NRC, November 2, 2026. Interview by Juurd Eijsvoogel.
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